The Bermuda-Azores high has once again taken its position in the Western Atlantic bringing warm and humid southerly/southwesterly winds to Bermuda. No organized precipitation events are expected through the 7th of August. However, a few stray convergent or convective showers could develop and dump locally heavy rain – just no frontal boundaries or tropical systems making their way into the region.
The heat and lack of precipitation, although good for the Cup Match Holiday, will likely induce unusually dry soil conditions. Additionally, water in tanks will begin to dwindle putting strain on water delivery trucks. This comes on top of a long term drought that began in 2009 and deepened significantly in 2011 which ended more than sixteen inches below average for precipitation.
The heat combined with the humidity may produce heat indices above 95F for 6-9hours each day, this is an exhausting heat that one only finds relief in the air conditioning. Peak Heat indices may reach 105F-110F this week. This degree of heat is dangerous, limit outside activities as be conscious of your hydration. It will feel hotter in the sun than what is reported.
As July comes to an end, we are beginning to look more closely at the tropical Atlantic as the Hurricane Season’s September 10th peak approaches. Currently, there are only a few typical tropical waves that don’t show only a little promise but bear watching regardless as one has been labelled invest 99L with a 20% chance of development by August 1st according to the National Hurricane Center.
If you are a Tropical Cyclone junkie, may I turn your attention to the West Pacific which has been active for a while – currently supporting a large Typhoon Saola and a smaller Tropical Storm Damrey. Watch for the rare Fujiwhara effect where tropical cyclones in close proximity rotate around each other. The large area of low pressure that the combined systems are producing is a set up for a potentially serious flooding disaster for Eastern Asia in the coming days. Finally, the activity in the Western Pacific may be a hint at an upswing in Atlantic activity – stay tuned, and be safe.