Temperatures Quickly Recover; More Fall Storminess Forecast This Weekend


Higher pressures and light winds allowed temperatures to recover from the lower 70s to around 80 degrees today under partly cloudy skies. This should remain the theme for tomorrow, although Friday evening the weather is expected to begin to change.

GFS Model
GFS shows a nor'easter bringing snow to the northeast and a cold front approaching Bermuda.

This weekend, however, a return flow from the south (the Caribbean and the western Atlantic) should bring warmer and more moist air to the Island. These winds could reach gale force, at least in gusts. This, along with lower pressures due to the approaching frontal system, should make the atmosphere less stable and showers may develop and affect the region from Saturday.

A potential squall line with strong to severe thunderstorms may develop out and ahead of the cold front which should pass late on Sunday. This cold front is expected to bring drastically cooler weather with temperatures potentially dipping into the upper-60s for a time after the front passes with some scattered post frontal showers.

Meanwhile, the storm may produce an early season nor’easter in the United States’  Northeast with potentially heavy wet snow and some wind, but most likely a lot of rain with a tropical moisture feed from the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Rina hasn’t been able to retain enough of a core of thunderstorms that connects the storms circulation at all layers of the atmosphere, and so it is likely that it will get ripped apart by strong shear over the Yucatan channel and the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The mid and upper atmospheric energies could get absorbed by the aforementioned storm system, while the lower atmospheric energies are expected to drift south under the influence of a transient high pressure. This remnant low of Rina could interact with an area of interest south of Jamaica to form either a new tropical cyclone or a rejuvenation of Rina. There is very little confidence in either forecast and Rina needs to be watched carefully as she seems to do what she wants.

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