The National Hurricane Center (NHC) determined that the disturbance 94L had organized enough to be classified Sub-tropical Storm Beryl. Beryl then moved West-Southwest and then Southwest. On this path it moved over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream (80-82F). This combined with a significant decrease in wind shear meant that Beryl could start to organize more significantly; large amounts of dry air in the region hindered any significant strengthening.
Beryl today is heading westward, towards a rare landfall near the Florida-Georgia border. The latest advisory reads:
“…Reconnaissance Aircraft finds Beryl a little stronger…
Summary of 1100am EDT (1500 UTC) information:
Location: 30.1N, 79.6W
About 125mi (205km) East of Jacksonville, Florida
About 135mi (220km) East-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia
Maximum sustained winds: 60mph (95km/h)
Present Movement: West (260 Degrees) at 10mph (17km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 998mb (29.47inches)”
The current forecast has Beryl transitioning to a tropical storm as it traverses the Gulf Stream’s warm waters which are increasing convection around the center of the storm. The only difference, in terms of impacts, between a tropical storm and a sub-tropical storm is that a tropical storm is typically more moist and has its strongest winds increasing as you get closer to the center of the storm. Whereas a sub-tropical storm has its strongest winds in its spiral bands that can be far removed from the center.
Wind gusts of 25-30mph have already been reported along the immediate coast, with an increase in cloudiness and a storm surge of at least a foot has already been observed as far away as South Carolina.
As Beryl transitions to a tropical storm it will be coming ashore leaving it with little time for any additional strengthening. Impacts are likely to consist of tree damage from wind gusts between 50 and 70mph within 50miles either side of the landfall location. 2-5″ inches of beneficial rain could fall from Beryl over an area of extreme-exceptional drought along the storm’s track as it moves inshore then gets picked up and taken back out to sea. A storm surge of between 1-3 feet is likely in areas of onshore winds, with large waves on top of it – this could cause localized coastal flooding, this dangerous surf, combined with strong winds, is creating dangerous rip currents and altogether dangerous sea conditions for beach-goers. Tornadoes are always a possibility in landfalling cyclones due to the cyclone’s circulation and wind shear due to differences in wind speed with height as the storm makes landfall – these typically form in the rain bands in right front quadrant of the storm.