A deepening trough over the United States East coast, producing severe thunderstorms including tornadoes in the New York City metropolitan area, is also starting to steer Tropical Storm Leslie northwards. On the track that Leslie is currently on, Bermuda will be on the outer fringe of its tropical storm force wind field. However, any wobbles in its track could allow for a band of stronger winds to pass over Bermuda.
Winds…The forecast has winds gusting to tropical storm force (~40mph) this evening as the first rain bands start to move in, possibly containing thunder, with a slight chance for tornadoes. Winds increase overnight reaching sustained tropical storm force by Sunday morning and gusts increase to 50-60mph for the afternoon on Sunday. Winds begin to decrease in Bermuda Sunday night and Monday morning. Winds will generally be coming from a northerly direction so those with a northerly exposure will feel the worst effects from Leslie. This should be a similar event to tropical storm Bertha from 2008. Expect some power outages and some tree damage.
Rainfall…The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 2-4 inches of rain from Leslie which will put a dent in the long term drought that Bermuda continues to suffer from, being >16″ below average for last year and >10″ below average so far this year. However, this amount of rain falling all at once could produce flash flooding in low lying areas.
Seas…High Surf will continue to slowly build until the storm passes Bermuda sometime on Sunday. Surf is currently forecast to peak at 10-15feet by the Bermuda Weather Service. This could cause extensive beach and coastal erosion.
Leslie… There is evidence to support the idea that Leslie could try to strengthen back to hurricane strength as it passes Bermuda. Regardless, Leslie’s structure is such that there is a large area of light winds around the center with storm force winds in a thick band that extends over 100miles away from the center. Behind Leslie expect less humid conditions as the same cold front over the eastern United States that is steering Leslie, will pass through Bermuda as Leslie passes.