Super Typhoon Jelawat and Lazarus Nadine


Super Typhoon Jelawat over the Philippine Sea, outer bands brining showers and gusty winds to the Philippines. AVN Infrared imagery of Jelawat from MTSAT tropical region floaters.

Tropical Storm Jelawat (Lawin) developed a pinhole eye last night and subsequently underwent explosive intensification into a 150mph, 925mb Super Typhoon. Its outerbands continue to bring heavy rains to the Philippines along with some potentially gusty winds. The Philippines sea once again allows a super typhoon to form.

Fluctuations in strength are likely as pinhole eyes are really unstable and liable to collapse because they can only form under near perfect atmospheric conditions. An eyewall replacement cycle, where an outer band organizes into a concentric secondary eyewall that chokes off and replaces the inner eyewall, is also possible in the next 12-36hours as Jelwat drifts northwards.

The Philippines are being affected now, while Taiwan and southern Japan need to keep an eye on Jelawat for future impacts. These locations are all implicated by day five in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast map.

Meanwhile, Post-Tropical storm Nadine detached from nearby frontal boundaries and has regained Tropical Storm status. It has 60mph winds and 986mb central pressures. The National Hurricane Center‘s forecast has the storm headed slowly towards the west, over increasingly warm waters. If atmospheric conditions are conducive, Nadine has a chance to regain hurricane strength. After five days, Nadine is expected to be picked up by an extra-tropical storm and finally be absorbed into it to produce a powerful fall storm for northern Europe – this forecast has a lot of uncertainty and will likely change as the storm develops.

Southerly flow, courtesy of Nadine and an extra-tropical storm over the British Isles (‘L’), along the west African coast is pulling deep tropical moisture (circled) northwards into Morocco and Western Sahara. This could reach Portugal and Spain later.

Interestingly, Nadine and the front she used to be associated with have produced an unusual southerly wind along the Western African coast sending tropical moisture into the extreme western Sahara desert. This could potentially lift northwards towards the Iberian peninsula. Some flooding is possible in this typically arid and fairly mountainous region.

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