Typhoon Jelawat tried to complete a fourth eyewall replacement cycle with an unrealistically large outer eyewall, however its proximity to Taiwan, a less atmospherically favorable environment, and slightly cooler water allowed some dry air to make it into the outer eyewall and halted the cycle. However, because the outer eyewall was so large, the inner eyewall was able to redevelop and Jelawat still has a well defined core despite being slightly weaker.
The western, sightly weaker eyewall of Jelawat is passing over Miyakojima bringing typhoon force winds and torrential rains of over 3inches an hour at times. An observing station in Miyakojima recently reported a minimum pressure of 952mb with 58mph sustained winds gusting to 93mph (the airport here stopped doing regular observations at 9pm JST, probably will resume at 6am JST). Nearby Shimojishima Airport reported a 106mph wind gust. Earlier, as Jelawat passed nearby, an observing station in Ishigakijima reported a minimum pressure of 969mb along with 75mph sustained winds gusting to 106mph.
Typhoon Jelawat is expected to continue to weaken as it heads northeastwards. Okinawa is next in the line of fire from this typhoon. The JTWC has Jelawat at 115mph as it crosses Okinawa around 9am September 30th local time. The next location under threat is mainland Japan with a landfall location expected between Osaka and Toyko around 9pm September 30th local time. The JTWC expects Jelawat to be at borderline typhoon/tropical storm strength with 75mph winds as it makes its mainland Japan landfall.
All of Okinawa prefecture is under a typhoon warning. Typhoon advisories extend into Amami prefecture and along the southern coast of Kyushu. Expect damaging typhoon strength winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding in the islands of Okinawa prefecture as Jelawat passes. Along the storm’s entire path there will be a slight risk for tornadoes. In addition to these impacts, mainland Japan should also prepare for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. See JMA’s warning/advisory page.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nadine has restrengthened into Hurricane Nadine this morning over the open central Atlantic. Satellite imagery indicated an eyewall had formed and persisted with moderate convection surrounding a 25nmi eye. Nadine is not a threat to land at this time.