Atlantic warms up again


Tropical Storm Patty formed yesterday from a tropical wave interacting with a stalled frontal system. It developed a small closed low level circulation with a small area of tropical storm force winds. Patty is near the Bahamas, but is nearly stationary and strong wind shear and dry air are working against her. The National Hurricane Center has Patty weakening to a remnant low or dissipating before getting caught and taken westward by the low level flow around an area of high pressure over the US East coast. Because Patty is expected to weaken, there are no tropical storm advisories in effect for the Bahamas despite its proximity – interests there should keep a wary eye on Patty anyway.

Bermuda Weather Service Radar Image of showers and thunderstorms in and around Bermuda in association with a stalled/slow moving frontal boundary. (October 12th 2012; 11:13am local time)

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate both Atlantic systems today so we should have a better understanding of their current intensities by tonight and forecast models will be a little more accurate tomorrow. Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather over the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) is being monitored for tropical development. The major computer models do develop this system into a tropical storm or hurricane in the next few days and the National Hurricane Center has given it an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hours as of 8am EDT today. Interests in the Eastern Caribbean, the Bahamas, and Bermuda should monitor this system for potential impacts.

Meanwhile, in the West Pacific, Typhoon Prapiroon is slowly churning over the Philippine Sea with 105mph winds according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Because it is moving so slowly, it shouldn’t affect land until after five days and so where exactly will be impacted is uncertain at this time, but interests in Japan must keep a close eye on this typhoon. See the JMA Typhoon Page for their forecast.

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