Hurricane Awareness Week Day Five – Talk the Talk


Hurricane awareness week is coming to an end today and by now you’ve probably heard enough about hurricanes to be ready and set for Hurricane Season which starts tomorrow – June 1st. Today, I want to make sure everyone understands the advisory products (Found here) that are issued by the Bermuda Weather Service in accordance with the National Hurricane Center’s analyses and track forecasts for with Tropical Cyclones. Bermuda Weather Service Definitions can be found on their Glossary page.

Remember to stay tuned to EMO, BWS, and NHC throughout the hurricane season for the latest official information and advice.

National hurricane center's 5-day forecast track with watched and warnings for what became Hurricane Florence in 2006.
National hurricane center’s 5-day forecast track with watched and warnings for what became Hurricane Florence in 2006.

Tropical Update Bulletins (TUBs): These are issued whenever there is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic and mimic the National Hurricane Center’s products. If a tropical cyclone has warranted watches or warnings for Bermuda they are issued every 3 hours, otherwise they are every 6hours. They include a forecast track with an error cone, wind radii, current intensity, current distance from Bermuda, and projected closest point of approach in the next 72hours.

No Threat: The Bermuda Weather Service has analyzed that the center of a Tropical cyclone is moving away from the island under the influence of well defined upper atmospheric steering currents.

Not a Threat at this time: The center of a Tropical cyclone not expected to pass within 400nm in the next 72hours but could threaten after that time. Or is expected to pass more than 400nm away in the next 72 hours yet could potentially take more threatening track. Closest points of approach aren’t calculated for after 72hours.

Potential Threat: The center of a Tropical Cyclone is expected to pass within 400nm within the next 72hours. It may pass closer than that after 72hours, closest points of approach aren’t calculated for after 72hours.

Threat: The center of a Tropical Cyclone is expected to pass close enough to Bermuda for hazardous conditions to develop within the next 72hours. Again, closest points of approach aren’t calculated for after 72hours.

Small Craft Warning: This is issued when winds in the marine area are expected to be 20-33kts and/or seas are expected to be greater than 9feet in the marine area(extending 25nm from the island). Usually issued 36hours in advance of the hazardous conditions. Conditions could be hazardous for mariners or beach-goers.

Tropical Storm Watch: This is issued when winds have the potential to reach tropical storm force (34-63kts) in Bermuda and/or the surrounding marine area in the next 48hours in association with a tropical cyclone. This may be issued for a threatening Sub-tropical cyclone

Tropical Storm Warning: This is issued when winds are expected to reach tropical storm force (34-63kts) in Bermuda and/or the surrounding marine area in the next 36hours in association with a tropical cyclone. This may be issued for a threatening Sub-tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Watch: This is issued when winds have the potential to reach hurricane force (>64kts) in Bermuda and/or the surrounding marine area in the next 48hours in association with a tropical cyclone. May be issued concurrently with tropical storm warnings if a tropical storm could strengthen unexpectedly to a hurricane and generate hurricane force winds in Bermuda as seen above. Or, if a hurricane is expected to pass close enough to produce tropical storm conditions but it is unknown whether it will pass close enough to produce hurricane conditions.

Hurricane Warning: This is issued when winds have the potential to reach hurricane force (>64kts) in Bermuda and/or the surrounding marine area in association with a tropical cyclone.

Note: tropical storm and hurricane advisories include watches and warnings for severe thunderstorms (squally gusts >50kts and tornadoes), high surf and flooding by their nature and separate advisories might not be issued.

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