At 5:45pm Eastern, the National Hurricane Center has determined, based on satellite, radar, and land observations, that Tropical Storm Andrea has indeed made landfall in Florida. Andrea had top sustained winds of 65mph and a minimum central pressure of 993mb at landfall. This is notably more intense than most indications suggested was possible.
Tropical Storm conditions continue in the big bend area of Florida, down the Gulf of Mexico coast to around Tampa Bay. In areas of onshore winds, a storm surge of 2-4feet has been observed and has caused some flooding. Meanwhile, a tornado threat continues for the Florida Peninsula where several tornadoes have already been spawned. This threat has spread into coastal Georgia and South Carolina. It should continue to spread northwards along the Tropical Storm Warned areas into Virginia, along with heavy rain and gusty winds as Andrea heads that way and transitions to an extra-tropical storm, likely with associated gales.
There is little deviation in forecast models in terms of the track for Andrea, however, few models managed to resolve the storm’s strengthening at all, except for the Canadian model which came close despite having a history of over strengthening tropical cyclones – perhaps this was due to its recent upgrade.
Andrea is not expected to become a threat to Bermuda as it heads along the United States East coast over the next few days. The Bermuda-Azores high is becoming well established over the Western Atlantic in response to upper atmospheric convergence and subsidence from all the convection associated with Andrea and the trough that is taking the storm northeastwards. Any fronts attached to Andrea’s remnants should be kept at bay by the Bermuda-Azores high as the system passes well to the north of Bermuda. However, the high should keep a well established tropical flow across the island keeping us slightly warmer than normal into the upper 70s and low 80s, and very humid, so periods of dense low cloud are possible for much of the forecast out to five days.
Additionally, last night, a weak area of low pressure had formed along a stationary front to the northwest of Bermuda. That has since moved northwards away from the island, taking the remnants of the front with it. It has also weakened and opened into a trough of low pressure not threatening Bermuda even with any showers.
REMEMBER to stay tuned to the Bermuda Weather Service for all things Bermuda weather including the latest watches, warnings, forecasts, and conditions.