A brief increase in convergence allowed for showery, thundery, and gusty periods over the Emancipation and Somer’s Day (Cup Match) Holiday. Despite this, the holiday was not a complete wash out and the weather was generally fairly decent. Inclement and poor weather is forecast for today. In fact, the risk for at least isolated showery precipitation remains high through the entire week. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms for Monday. They then diminish in coverage, scattered to isolated on Tuesday and remain isolated for Wednesday. Late on Thursday, the coverage of the showers may become more scattered; but returns to isolated for Friday.
The western part of the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge, extending towards Bermuda, is weakening and retreating towards the east in response to an approaching cold front. This trough is being enhanced by the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian – these briefly regenerated into a Tropical Depression Saturday morning near Florida before wind shear quickly tore it apart 12 hours later. The remnants of Dorian are pumping moisture into and increasing convergence ahead of this trough, allowing it to push back the Bermuda-Azores high enough to introduce its associated inclement weather into the Bermuda area for Monday.
The ridge is expected to begin to build back westward over Bermuda for Tuesday, pushing the trough back towards the west and north, allowing some settling of the local weather into Wednesday, although some isolated convergence showers are still possible. Yet an easterly wave, currently over the central Atlantic as a weak feature, should be approaching Bermuda at this time – enhancing convergence in the area and therefore the threat for showers for Thursday. This wave appears to be very slow moving so this threat for showers could linger into Friday. A Thunderstorm Advisory and a Small Craft Warning are in effect for Bermuda and the Marine area – stay tuned to the Bermuda Weather Service for the latest forecast and advisory products.
As a side note, a major Saharan dust storm blew out over the Atlantic and suspended dust from this storm has traveled as far west as Mexico and can be seen on satellite imagery. This should help suppress tropical cyclone formation in the tropical Atlantic in the short term as it brings a characteristic stable lower atmospheric environment with it, known as the Saharan Air Layer.