Remnants of Gabrielle Persist


The remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle to the south of Bermuda and northeast of the Bahamas. A curved band of low cumulus is curving north-south on the west side of the broad center of circulation, while deep convection covers much of the low level structure on the west side of the circulation.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle to the south of Bermuda and northeast of the Bahamas near 25N, 68W. A curved band of low cumulus is curving north-south on the west side of the broad center of circulation, while deep convection covers much of the low level structure on the west side of the circulation.

The remnants of Gabrielle continue to struggle south of Bermuda. Tropical moisture associated with it and a nearby tropical wave have merged with a stationary front and should continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to Bermuda for the next few days. After then a cold front over the US east coast should begin to clear this area of unsettled weather away from Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center gives the remnants of Gabrielle a 10% chance for regeneration in the next two days, and a 30% chance for regeneration in the next five days – both in the ‘low’ category. However, upper atmospheric conditions have become a little more favorable for development than last night which means that deep convection may be more able to persist allowing the surface circulation to become better defined. If those two things are able to happen, then Gabrielle may regenerate. However, the meridional (north-south) orientation and extension of low pressure associated with the remnants of Gabrielle is forcing tropical moisture to push far to the north (all the way to Newfoundland) and is keeping the remnants of Gabrielle as a broad surface circulation, making it hard for moisture to concentrate and wrap around to its west side.

As the same cold front (now over the US east coast) begins to clear the unsettled weather near Bermuda away, it should also steer the remnants of Gabrielle northwards towards Bermuda. During this time, the remnants of Gabrielle could have the best shot at regeneration and would be so close to Bermuda that warning time would be unacceptably low. Continue to expect heavy rain from squally showers and thunderstorms until the remnants of Gabrielle clear to the north of Bermuda. However, if the remnants of Gabrielle do regenerate – then gales may also be a threat. Also continue to follow the latest official products from the Bermuda Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center.

Meanwhile, there is a broad tropical low in the Central Atlantic that is being steered westward by the Bermuda-Azores high – no development is expected from this feature in the next two days. Additionally, newly formed Tropical Depression 9 has prompted tropical storm warnings for the southernmost Cape Verde islands, just off the West coast of Africa in the Eastern Atlantic. Tropical Depression 9 is southeast of those islands and is being steered westwards in a seemingly favorable atmospheric environment for strengthening. Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm as it passes very near the southern Cape Verde islands, and then a hurricane as it begins to turn more northwest and then northwards once it passes to the west of the Cape Verde islands. This storm would be named Humberto and would be the first hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season if it does strengthen that much. Tropical Depression 9 is not a threat to Bermuda for at least the next five days.

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