Remnants of Gabrielle Nearing Bermuda


This is my analysis of the Western Atlantic this evening. Bermuda is the green dot. Red dashed lines represent the rough location of troughs, the red circle indicates the remnants of Gabrielle. Turquoise arrows are upper atmospheric wind vectors. Finally, the blue flagged line indicates a cold front.
This is my analysis of the Western Atlantic this evening. Bermuda is the green dot. Red dashed lines represent the rough location of troughs, the red circle indicates the remnants of Gabrielle. Turquoise arrows are my estimated upper atmospheric wind vectors based on CIMSS wind analysis. These reveal an upper atmospheric ridge over the remnants of Gabrielle with an upper trough to its west and north. Finally, the blue flagged line indicates a cold front.

Today, the remnants of Gabrielle have become much more organized and continue to track north-northeastwards towards Bermuda. A small increase in organization of the remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle would result in their reformation. These remnants are expected to be at their closest point of approach within the next two days – if this area does regenerate into a tropical cyclone and happens to intensify, the advisory/warning products that would be required would be issued with very short notice. It is therefore imperative that interests in Bermuda closely monitor products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center. They will likely carry a similar message to current forecasts and warning/advisory products but will be less widely broadcast because they are not associated with a tropical cyclone as classified by the National Hurricane Center. Regardless of redevelopment, expect squally showers and thunderstorms to impact Bermuda beginning late tonight and lasting through the day Tuesday. Gusts in any squally showers are likely to be near or exceed 35kts. 

Meteorologically, the surface circulation of Gabrielle appears to both have become more concentrated and aligned with its mid level center. Simultaneously, deep convection on the east side of the remnants of Gabrielle appears to have spread out in the upper atmosphere with enough momentum and releasing enough heat energy to expand an upper ridge westward to be more aligned with the surface and mid level circulation centers. These are all signals of a tropical cyclone in the stages of formation. The national hurricane center cites elongation of the surface circulation and unfavorable upper level winds as reasons that further organization is unlikely. However, they note that “only a small increase in organization of the showers and thunderstorms” could result in the regeneration of Gabrielle and so give it a medium (40%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a medium (50%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next five days.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 9 strengthened today into Tropical Storm Humberto. It brought strong gusty winds to the southern Cape Verde islands along with heavy rain. Some gusts were likely over tropical storm strength, especially in the windward higher elevations of the southern islands. Humberto has since passed south of the Cape Verdes, now to their southwest continuing to strengthen and head west. The National Hurricane Center continues to call for Humberto to strengthen into a hurricane in the next day or so. However, at this point, once Humberto’s outer bands clear the Cape Verde islands, it should stay far enough out to sea to not affect any further land areas.

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