Tropical Storm Gabrielle regenerated from its remnants with its first advisory at 6am Bermuda time. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Bermuda and the surrounding marine area for tropical storm conditions that are likely to ensue later this afternoon or early this evening and last through Wednesday morning, at least in the marine area. As of 2:30pm Bermuda time, Satellite scatterometer instruments estimate that Gabrielle had maximum sustained winds of 50mph; a little higher than the Dvorak satellite estimate, complimented with surrounding sparse buoy data that the National Hurricane Center had produced at 11am.
Here is a summary of the National Hurricane Center’s advisory at that time.
"...GABRIELLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 64.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES"
Gabrielle is expected to pass very near or over Bermuda tonight. Expect to experience the peak winds of Tropical Storm Gabrielle which could be sustained between 35 and 60mph as is passes Bermuda. Gusts may reach 75mph in exposed, and elevated areas and if deep convection intensifies as the storm crosses the island. These winds are strong enough to be damaging to vegetation and utility poles. Note that a shift to the left in the track (taking the center to the west of Bermuda) would allow for the core of Gabrielle to more directly pass over the island, while a shift to the right in the track (taking the center to the east of Bermuda) would put Bermuda in the weaker side of the storm. On the current track, parts of Bermuda may experience the worst of Gabrielle while other parts experience the weaker side – it is important to be prepared for the worst. Additionally, a track to the west would result in southerly winds, while a track to the east of Bermuda would result in northerly winds – winds from all directions are possible if the storm tracks directly across the island. A track directly across Bermuda (as forecast) may also be accompanied by a lull in winds as the center moves overhead.
This wind is expected to produce large surf up to 12feet outside the reef and a storm surge near 2 feet. As the storm is expected to arrive at about the same time as high tide, this may cause some coastal flooding and erosion. Heavy rain is expected to be a factor with the National Hurricane Center calling for 3-5 inches of rain, possibly as much as 7inches. This forecast estimate may be a little on the high side but, even 2 inches of rain could be enough to cause flooding issues, especially in low lying areas because of high tide near the storm’s peak. These low lying areas include near the Canal in Pembroke, parts of South Shore road in Devonshire etc. An unusually wet August and start to September could exacerbate the flooding issues in these areas – although Bermuda tends to have well drained soil.
Recent Satellite imagery suggests that dry air and wind shear is degrading the convective structure of Gabrielle on its approach – this may be a sign of weakening. However, convective activity may increase at any time resulting in a resumption of the storm’s intensity, or even further strengthening. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are enroute to investigate Gabrielle for the 6pm Bermuda time advisory. It is important to stay tuned to the Bermuda Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center for the latest official warnings, advisories, and forecasts related to Gabrielle and Bermuda weather. For the latest official information about interruptions to public services including the causeway and public transportation, see the Bermuda Emergency Measures Organization Website.