Stationary Front to the South


My rough analysis of the Western Atlantic showing the two suspect waves of low pressure on a stalled front to the southwest of Bermuda marked as red 'L's. Cold fronts are marked as blue flagged lines, warm fronts are marked by red scalloped lines. Troughs are marked by yellow dashed lines.
My rough analysis of the Western Atlantic showing the two suspect waves of low pressure on a stalled front to the southwest of Bermuda marked as red ‘L’s. Cold fronts are marked as blue flagged lines, warm fronts are marked by red scalloped lines. Troughs are marked by yellow dashed lines.

The cold front that passed Bermuda earlier this week bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms is now draped to the south of Bermuda extending into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over the next few days, waves of low pressure are expected to develop along this stationary front and could bring unsettled weather to Bermuda as they ride generally along the front eastwards towards Bermuda and then northeastwards out to sea. These will likely not be tropical cyclones as they pass the island but they could bring strong and gusty winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms that could potentially be squally.

The first of these waves of low pressure is expected to impact the island late of Thursday and overnight into Friday morning. This center of low pressure associated with this wave should pass very near and to the south of Bermuda and could bring a period of strong to near gale force northeasterly winds as it moves eastward. Showery rain ahead of this low on Thursday night may turn thundery at times.

The second wave is expected to be following on the heels of Thursday’s system. Impacts to Bermuda could begin as early as Saturday night as the low develops, turns northeastwards to the distant west of Bermuda and drags a warm front across the island. As the warm front crosses the island on Saturday night, expect patchy rain to transition to a more showery rain with downpours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are then possible through Sunday into Monday morning on strong southerly winds. The associated cold front should then cross the island late on Monday clearing out much of the precipitation and reducing and shifting winds to the west. The progression of this second wave of low pressure is a little less certain than the first and so close attention should be paid to official forecasts by the Bermuda Weather Service.

Below is a summary of my unofficial forecast for Bermuda during this period.

 

Time Weather
Thursday Afternoon to Night Strong southeasterly winds and isolated increasing in coverage to scattered showers. Some thunder possible, some showers gusty.
Thursday Night to Early Friday Morning Strong to near gale force easterly backing Northeasterly winds as low passes near/south of Bermuda, showers turn to rain. Precipitation and winds ease around sunrise.
Saturday More settled weather, winds veer from northerly to easterly, increasing cloud ahead of approaching warm front from the south. Chance of rain late in the evening as winds increase to strong.
Overnight Saturday – Sunday Warm front pushes through from the south, strong winds sharply veer from east to the south-southeast. Rain turns to showers that are heavy at times, potentially squally with thunder.
Sunday through Monday Continued strong southeasterly-southerly flow continues the chances for showers and thunder until cold front moves through from the west Monday afternoon clearing much of the unsettled weather away and winds veer to the west.
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