Sub-tropical storm Melissa formed to the distant east-southeast of Bermuda on Monday November 18th at 12pm local time. In a fairly well forecast move, an extra-tropical low in the central Atlantic, near 700miles east-southeast of Bermuda, completed a slow transition to a sub-tropical storm by disassociating with its frontal boundaries and acquiring some tropical processes. The sub-tropical storm has since strengthened, and as of 12am November 19th 2013 local time, Melissa has maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 60mph with higher gusts. Melissa’s minimum central pressure is near 985mb. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or so as Melissa continues slowly northwards in a favorable atmospheric environment with sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures. It is possible that Melissa makes a second transition to a tropical cyclone during this time and could become the third hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season. However, Melissa is not expected to impact Bermuda with much more than increased northeasterly swells and continued northeasterly winds over the next day or so. The storm then gets picked up by an approaching front and heads further, northeastwards, out to sea and once again becomes extra-tropical – all the while remaining far to the east of Bermuda.
That same front is expected to cross Bermuda overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, Tuesday afternoon, expect winds to veer from northeast to southeast. The front then passes Tuesday night bringing showers, that could potentially be associated with thunder and gusty winds. Behind the front, expect winds to veer sharply to the north, bringing further cooler air, and increase strong to near gale force for early Wednesday morning. Some isolated post-frontal showers are also possible on Wednesday. High pressure then begins to slowly build in from the west brining improvement and settling of weather for the end of the week. For the latest official information on Sub-Tropical Storm Melissa see the National Hurricane Center website, and for the latest official information regarding Bermuda’s weather, see the Bermuda Weather Service‘s website.