Unseasonable Warmth for the end of January


Bermuda Weather Service radar image shows thunderstorms to the south of Bermuda moving from Southwest to Northeast, they largely passed to the south of Bermuda but were close enough that thunder was observed at the airport. Image valid at 12:03am January 28th.
Bermuda Weather Service radar image shows organized thunderstorms to the south of Bermuda moving from Southwest to Northeast, they largely passed to the south of Bermuda but were close enough that thunder was observed at the airport. Image valid at 12:03am January 28th.

A stationary front near Bermuda produced periods of rain along with showers and thunderstorms on Monday this stationary front backed to the west of Bermuda and weakened overnight into Tuesday. This allowed for warm humid air from the south-southwest to filter in. That warmer air mass in addition to clearer skies allowed a high of 76.1F at the airport on Tuesday – this is just 0.9F below the record high for the date of 77F set in 1990. The humidity was so high that it led to periods of mist and low hanging clouds overnight into Wednesday. The day on Wednesday saw warmth and humidity continue with a high of 74.3F at the airport. Continued south-southwesterly winds ahead of a semi-stationary front to the west of Bermuda became contaminated by some convergence that led to mainly light showers for Bermuda, with some heavier showers nearby.

Surface Analysis by the Bermuda Weather Service at 2pm local time today showing the position of fronts as blue and red lines in the western Atlantic.
Surface Analysis by the Bermuda Weather Service of the local section of the Atlantic. This was analyzed based on data from 2pm local time today showing the position of fronts as blue and red lines in the western Atlantic.

The cold front to the west of Bermuda is expected to pass overnight Wednesday into Thursday, then stall to the near southeast. It should bring a period of more northerly winds with rain, showers, and cooler air. Low pressure starts to develop near the Bahamas along the tail end of this same stationary front. As this weak low moves along the front, passing Bermuda to the northwest, it lifts the front back northwards across Bermuda signaling a return to southerly wind regime and warmer weather on Friday. The front then stalls near or over Bermuda again this weekend. Front tonight into this weekend expect changeable weather both periods of warm weather and periods of cool weather. In addition to the unsettled temperature patterns, expect chances for rain and showers tonight into the weekend as the front lingers nearby through that period bringing its associated precipitation. The exact position of the front is to be determined and could lead to very different weather depending on its exact location.

To sum up this is a generally messy surface pattern with disorganized troughiness near Bermuda. This pattern has persisted for much of January oscillating back and forth across Bermuda and occasionally organizing a little more. This is the same pattern that has brought persistent colder than normal air across much of the eastern United States. For the distant future, it may be that this pattern persists into the middle of February, or it could break down allowing for more seasonable weather – the eventual evolution of this pattern should be monitored for any large scale changes.

For the most recent official forecast and warning products for Bermuda, see the Bermuda Weather Service.

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