Warm, humid, but dry weather has been the theme for Cup Match 2014. High temperatures should continue near normal in the mid 80s today through Sunday. An interruption in the dry weather begins tonight as the trough remnants of a decaying back-door cold front approach from the east. Showers associated with this trough will be isolated for the most part, but could become scattered at times. While accumulations will generally be light, precipitation intensity in the isolated showers could be moderate to heavy.
Light to moderate northeasterly winds ahead of the trough today shift more easterly behind the trough on Saturday/Sunday. This easterly wind regime is thanks to the Bermuda-Azores ridge oriented west-east to the north of Bermuda. The trough and associated area of low pressure helped displace the Bermuda-Azores ridge further to the north than normal. The trough dissipates as it tracks westward then northward around the Bermuda-Azores ridge which also returns to our latitude by Monday night. Light winds veer to southerly as this happens with continued mainly fair weather, save for isolated showers.
See the latest official forecast for Bermuda at the Bermuda Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Bertha formed east of the Lesser Antilles islands late last night. The storm is moving quickly west-northwestward at 21mph. Hurricane hunter aircraft have found that although Bertha has maximum 1-minute sustained winds near 50mph, the storm barely has a closed surface circulation and better resembles a tropical wave. This is supported by light easterly winds in Barbados, south of Bertha this afternoon – westerly winds should be found south of a closed low pressure in the northern hemisphere. Further, dry air and wind shear are inhibiting sustained deep convection near and over the center of Bertha and the storm is currently mainly low cloud swirl on visible satellite imagery.
Track: The center of Bertha should cross into the eastern Caribbean near Martinique, possibly making a landfall there later this afternoon. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 100 nautical miles from the center but only to the north and east of the center where the last of Bertha’s significant shower activity remains. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for parts of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch is in effect for eastern parts of the Dominican Republic. Bertha is then expected to exit the Caribbean near Puerto Rico Saturday night and then re-curve around the Bermuda-Azores high into the north Atlantic west of Bermuda during the first half of next week.
Intensity: Because of the dry air and wind shear around Bertha right now, it is possible that the storm degenerates into a remnant low or a tropical wave as it moves through the eastern Caribbean. It could then regenerate in the southwest Atlantic where land interaction diminishes, wind shear decreases, and the environment is less dry. Strengthening is then likely as Bertha begins to re-curve, before the storm enters cooler waters and again increased wind shear. Bertha could threaten Bermuda mid-week next week on this forecast track.
See the latest official updates on Bertha at the National Hurricane Center.