Last night the National Hurricane Center determined that Tropical Depression 6 had intensified and organized enough to be classified as a Tropical Storm, and they assigned the name Edouard. As of the 6pm Bermuda local time advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Edouard has maximum 1-minute sustained winds near 45mph and a surface pressure near 998mb. NASA’s Global Hawk unmanned aircraft was investigating Edouard this afternoon and dropsonde observations from that mission were helpful in confirming Edouard’s intensity.
Edouard is expected to gradually intensify into a hurricane over the open Central Atlantic as it moves west-northwest to northwestward over the next three days. Then, early next week, Edouard is expected to begin to move northward into a weakness in the Bermuda-Azores ridge of high pressure well to the east of Bermuda. This track would keep Edouard so far from the island that the only impacts from Edouard would be storm related swells out of the southeast and east reaching Bermuda beginning Tuesday.
There is a well established steering flow at this time and there is good agreement between global and tropical forecast models. This is allowing a high degree of confidence in this track forecast – further, Edouard is expected to be so far from land that small deviations from the current forecast wouldn’t make significant differences in impacts to Bermuda. That being said, it is important to monitor this and any active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic because there could be significant unforeseen changes in the track (especially after three days) that could result in drastic changes in impact. (See: National Hurricane Center | Bermuda Weather Service)