Low Pressure Brewing Southeast of Bermuda


201410082315 Unenhanced TATL_Analysis
The National Hurricane Center has given an area of low pressure far to the southeast of Bermuda a 30% chance of becoming a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone in the next 5 days as it tracks toward Bermuda, roughly following the orange arrow.

This evening, the National Hurricane Center gave an area of low pressure located well to the southeast of Bermuda a medium 30% chance of becoming a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. They also indicated that the track it would likely take over that time period would bring the system (in whatever form it takes) toward Bermuda possibly bringing inclement weather to the island this weekend, particularly Sunday.

This disturbance is expected to move over the anomalously warm waters south of Bermuda that are around 29.5C – far warmer than the general threshold for tropical development (26C). As it does so, the atmosphere around it is expected to moisten, and wind shear is expected to diminish somewhat. These factors suggest potential for development. However, the state of the disturbance today (ie. a highly sheared with convection far removed from the broad low center, in an environment complete with dry mid-level air) suggests that initial development may be slow to occur and that could close the window for development before the system gets going.

Currently, this area is tracking slowly west-northwestward. Tomorrow night, the southerly flow between the Bermuda-Azores high to the east of Bermuda and an approaching cold front is expected to bring whatever this disturbance becomes toward Bermuda. The cold front might make it across the island early next week but the fate of this disturbance could decide what happens with the front. Expect an unsettled end to the weekend with gusty showers/thunderstorms possible, large rainfall totals are also possible.  (See: Bermuda Weather Service | National Hurricane Center)

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