This morning the disturbance to the south-southeast of Bermuda organized into Sub-tropical Depression 7 about 590miles south of Bermuda. This depression continued to organize and intensify today and aircraft reconnaissance found that it had strengthened enough to become Sub-tropical Storm Fay about 525miles south of Bermuda.
As of 6pm local time, Fay was a 40mph sub-tropical storm about 525miles south of Bermuda and was moving north-northwestward at 12mph.
Fay is expected to strengthen slightly over the next two to three days on approach to Bermuda. The storm is in an improving environment with very warm sea-surface temperatures near 29C (84F), wind shear decreasing somewhat, and nearby dry air is starting to moisten. Despite that wind shear is expected to remain moderate as an upper level low remains nearly co-located with the center. Further, the storm’s sprawling structure – typical of sub-tropical storms – will also slow/reduce it’s ability to organize and strengthen. Fay could transition to a tropical storm, but this would likely mean little in terms of changes to any impacts to Bermuda.
Bermuda is under a tropical storm watch. This is for the possibility of the onset of tropical storm conditions (1-minute sustained winds >39mph) associated with Fay in the next 36hours. Expect conditions to begin to deteriorate Saturday and peak Sunday morning as Fay makes a closest approach.
- Strong to near tropical storm force winds with gusts near storm force. Winds initially easterly backing northerly and increasing. The exact wind speed and direction will depend on the exact strength and track of Fay.
- Heavy rainfall with totals over 2inches are possible and they could lead to isolated flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas especially at high tide.
- High surf and swells with seas peaking around 11feet on Sunday.