Last night, Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed east of the leeward islands and this morning tracked across Antigua between 9am and 10am Bermuda time, sustained winds of 67mph with a gust to 88mph were reported on that island. As of the 9pm Bermuda time advisory, Gonzalo had maximum 1-minute sustained winds near 80mph with a minimum central pressure near 984mb. Gonzalo is strengthening and is expected to become a major hurricane late tomorrow North of the leeward islands where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
After passing through the Northeastern Caribbean, Gonzalo is forecast to exit north of Puerto Rico and into the southwestern Atlantic on Tuesday morning. Sea surface temperatures in that area are 29-30C, plenty warm to support and grow a tropical cyclone. Additionally, environmental conditions are expected to become more supportive of tropical cyclone growth as Gonzalo moves out of the Caribbean, these factors support at least a slow intensification of Gonzalo between Tuesday and Thursday as Gonzalo turns more northward. Gonzalo then begins to experience more wind shear on Friday into Saturday morning as it approaches Bermuda from the south-southwest, but would remain a dangerous hurricane. Keep a close eye on Gonzalo and follow the official products from the National Hurricane Center and the Bermuda Weather Service.