Series of Winter Lows


westatlantic-radar-2015-02-10-2303
Bermuda Weather Service Radar imagery at 11:03pm last night showing the widespread moderate rain with embedded heavier showers skirting the island to the south and north.

 

Today, the first of three potential gale events in five days is expected to impact Bermuda. Below is a rough timeline of events:

Wednesday (8am-5pm)
Strong southwesterly winds, isolated to scattered showers. Showers are expected generally be light.

Wednesday (5pm-3am)
Winds sharply veer northwest and increase to gale force. Storm force gusts are possible, especially in shower activity and in elevated areas with northwesterly exposure. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, with mainly light rain.

Thursday (3am-5pm)
Winds decrease to strong, remaining from the northwest. Shower activity clears up leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies. Cooler, less humid weather.

Thursday (5pm-12am)
Winds back westerly and decrease to moderate. Cool cloudy weather continues.

Friday (12am-11am)
A cold front approaches from the west. Moderate westerly winds back southwesterly and increase to strong. A period of southwesterly gale force winds is possible ahead of this cold front. Showers, possibly with thunder are expected along and ahead of the cold front. A brief recovery in temperatures to near normal (69F) high temperature levels during this period.

Friday (11am-12am)
The cold front passes and strong southwesterly winds veer westerly, remaining strong. Cooler air returns.

Saturday (12am-2pm)
Strong westerly winds become moderate and back slightly, becoming west-southwesterly or southwesterly. Temperatures start another brief recovery towards normal.

Saturday (2pm- Sunday 11am)
Southwesterly winds increase gradually becoming gale force (potentially storm force) ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Showers are expected to develop along the front and enter the area Sunday. Steady temperatures in the upper 60s with increasing humidity.

Sunday (11am- Monday 8pm)
Winds veer sharply to the west or west-northwest and remain at gale (potentially storm force), with higher gusts. Post-frontal shower activity may include some heavier showers with hail as cold air filters in. Temperatures fall well below average, approaching record lows on Monday (the record low for Monday is 51.3ºF set in 2010). Winds fluctuate in strength and direction through this period as post-frontal troughs pinwheel into the area around a low centered over Newfoundland. Winds begin to decrease Monday afternoon but remain at least strong.

Here the following wind descriptors were used:

Light winds: sustained winds less than 12kts.
Moderate winds: sustained winds 12-19kts.
Strong winds: sustained winds 20-33kts.
Gale force winds: sustained winds 34-47kts.
Storm force winds: sustained winds 48-63kts.
Hurricane force winds: sustained winds greater than 64kts.

The above is, again, a rough timeline of when these events could occur. Watch for changes in the strength of winds, potential for thunderstorms along cold fronts, and timing of frontal passage.

For the latest official updates see the forecast and warning products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.

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