A broad area of low pressure formed along a stationary front about 300 miles to the southeast of Bermuda over the weekend. Last night, the stationary front began to show signs of dissipating and the low began to show signs of consolidating. The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring this low and as of 9am local time this morning, has given it a medium 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Thursday morning. Deep convection has been able to persist over the eastern part of the surface circulation over the last day or so, but it hasn’t been able to develop well defined surface circulation probably due to moderate vertical wind shear and nearby dry mid-level air.
However, starting later today, the vertical wind shear that has been slowing development is expected to diminish. As the environment improves, it should allow for further organization of the low as it remains nearly stationary to the southeast of Bermuda over the next day or so. By Thursday morning, the low should begin moving to the north and pass well to the east of the island. If a tropical cyclone does form, it should track far enough to the east of the island to keep adverse weather at bay.
At this time, expect moderate to strong east-northeasterly winds to continue into Thursday morning with isolated showers. On Thursday, winds then back through the day, settling from the southwest by Friday afternoon as the low passes to the east then northeast. Isolated to scattered showers continue in the area, clearing into Friday. For the latest official information: Bermuda Weather Service | National Hurricane Center.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Fred dissipated over the east-central Atlantic and its remnant energy is tracking towards the Azores, and Tropical Storm Grace is tracking quickly westward across the central Tropical Atlantic. Grace is struggling with the nearby dry and stable air associated with the Saharan Air Layer to the near north of this system. As a result, Grace is expected to become a remnant low before reaching the northeastern Caribbean in the next four to five days. Grace is not a threat to Bermuda over the next three days.