Tropical Storm Kate formed early yesterday morning. The storm tracked north of the Bahamas Islands, clearing those islands by late Monday night, turning northward. Kate continued to recurve and is accelerating northeastward and strengthening. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast as of 11am expects Kate to pass north of Bermuda Wednesday morning as a minimal hurricane. This is a relatively high confidence forecast, taking Kate more than 150nm north of Bermuda. Because Kate is a small storm, small differences in the actual track will therefore have little bearing on the impacts in Bermuda.
Kate has strengthened and developed a more robust circulation than originally expected. This will delay it being absorbed by a non-tropical low until after Kate passes Bermuda.
Expect southerly winds to increase from moderate to strong, then veer to the southwest overnight. Shower or possibly thunderstorm activity associated with rain bands far removed from the center of Kate could bring gusts to tropical storm force (>34kts or >39mph) on Wednesday morning. Winds could briefly peak at sustained tropical storm strength in the northern marine area and in elevated areas of the island with exposure to southwesterly winds, particularly around any squallier showers or thunderstorms.
Following Kate’s passage, a cold front rolls through Wednesday night and winds veer to the west, ushering in cooler and less humid weather. Kate serves as a reminder that Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th for a reason.